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The SIPN2 (Sea Ice Prediction Network – Phase 2) project of United States issued an interim Post-Season Report

The SIPN2 (Sea Ice Prediction Network – Phase 2) project of United States issued an interim Post-Season Report. This report is a preliminary summary report of the forecast and observation of Arctic sea ice in the summer of 2020. A full post-season report will be released later.

SIPN2 Interium Post-Season Report 

Figure 3 shows a comparison of the median September 2020 forecast contributions reported in August. Our forecast is indicated as UTokyo (Kimura et al.). We are in the position to insist “It is meaningless if the sea ice distribution does not match”, we just can’t overlook it when compared like this, though. Our forecasts is the average of various forecast values.

The gray line in the Figure 3(2020 Observation 3.92) shows the observation value in August. Probably because sea ice extent became the second smallest record this year, many contributors forecasted larger values than the actual.

The observation values of the sea ice extent announced by 7 institution are compared in Table 1. The observation values are also so different. JAXA has the smallest value.

August Outlooks contributions for pan-Arctic extent, with median (blue dashed) line, and September 2020 observed extent from SII (gray line)
Figure 3. August Outlooks contributions for pan-Arctic extent, with median (blue dashed) line, and September 2020 observed extent from SII (gray line). Two contributions, PolArctic and IceNet1 (identified “Other”) used machine learning methods. Public/citizen contributions include: Simmons, Nico Sun, Sanwa School, and ARCUS Team.
Image courtesy of Molly Hardman, NSIDC.
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/interim
Table 1. September average and minimum daily extent from seven products.
Table 1. September average and minimum daily extent from seven products.
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/interim