JP

Arctic Sea Ice Forecast

  1. HOME
  2. Arctic Sea Ice Forecast
  3. 2017 First report

2017 First report

Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo

Figure１：Predicted sea ice cover on September 11, 2017.
Figure１：Predicted sea ice cover on September 11, 2017.
  1. Minimum ice extent in September will be about 4.58 million square kilometer.
  2. Ice retreat in the Laptev Sea and Chukchi Sea will be faster than normal years.
  3. Sea routes of Russian side and Canadian side will both open.
    Russian side will open around August 20, and the Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will open around July 20.
Figure 2：The interannual change of minimum extent since 2003.
Figure 2：The interannual change of minimum extent since 2003. Value of 2017 is predicted one.
Figure 3：Animation of predicted Arctic ice extent from the July 1 to the September 15.
Figure 3：Animation of predicted Arctic ice extent from the July 1 to the September 15. Yellow and green lines indicates the ice edge of the same day for 2015 and 2016.
Figure 4：Animation of the ice edge (30% of ice concentration) for 2003-2016 (yellow contours) and 2017 (predicted: red contour).
Figure 4：Animation of the ice edge (30% of ice concentration) for 2003-2016 (yellow contours) and 2017 (predicted: red contour).

Sea ice extent on September 11, which is the minimal area phase of Arctic sea ice, is expected to be 4.58 million square kilometer, which is 8% larger than the last year.

Sea ice in the Laptev Sea and Chukchi Sea is expected to be thin and retreat quickly. On the other hand, sea ice in the East Siberian Sea will retreat slowly with nearly same speed as normal years. Sea routes of the Russian side will open around August 20, which is almost equal to the last year.

On the Canadian side, sea ice in the Beaufort Sea is expected to be thick and retreat slowly compared with the last year. The sea routes of the Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will open around the July 20.

Prediction map is also available in Arctic Data Archive System of National Institute of Polar Research.

Method of Prediction：Tracking of sea ice from winter to spring

Figure 5：Animation of distributed particles’ movements during December 1, 2015 through April 30, 2016.
Figure 5：Animation of distributed particles’ movements during December 1, 2015 through April 30, 2016. The color bar indicates the thickness of the ice on December 1, 2016.
Figure 6：Distribution of particles for April 30, 2016, which are first arrayed over the ice-covered area on December 1, 2015 and are moved based on the satellite-derived daily-ice velocity.
Figure 6：Distribution of particles for April 30, 2016, which are first arrayed over the ice-covered area on December 1, 2015 and are moved based on the satellite-derived daily-ice velocity. The color bar indicates the thickness of the ice on December 1, 2015.
Figure 7：Distribution of particles for April 30, 2017, which are first arrayed over the ice-covered area on December 1, 2016 and are moved based on the satellite-derived daily-ice velocity.
Figure 7：Distribution of particles for April 30, 2017, which are first arrayed over the ice-covered area on December 1, 2016 and are moved based on the satellite-derived daily-ice velocity. The color bar indicates the thickness of the ice on December 1, 2016.

The way of this prediction is based on our recent research (Kimura et al., 2013). First, we expect the distribution of the sea ice thickness in spring from the movement of sea ice from December to April. Then, we predict the summer ice area depending on the assumption that thick ice remains later and thin ice melts sooner than the average.

To calculate the movement of the sea ice, we first distributed particles homogeneously over the Arctic sea ice on December 1, and traced the trajectories of the particles to the end of April by using the satellite derived daily ice velocity (Figure 5). Data from satellite microwave sensors, AMSR-E (2002/03-2010/11) and AMSR2 (2012/13- 2016/17) was used to derive the daily ice velocity. Based on the relationship (linear regression line) between yearly particle concentration on April 30 and ice concentration on a specific day in summer, we predicted the ice area on the day from the particle concentration in April of this year.

In addition, we considered initial ice thickness on December 1 calculated by the method of Krishfield et al. (2014). It is defined as “virtual ice volume” that the sum of thickness of all the particles in 240 kilometer radius. In this prediction, we predicted the summer ice concentration using this virtual ice volume instead of the particle concentration.

References

Kimura, N., A. Nishimura, Y. Tanaka and H. Yamaguchi, Influence of winter sea ice motion on summer ice cover in the Arctic, Polar Research, 32, 20193, 2013.

Krishfield, R. A., Proshutinsky, A., Tateyama, K., Williams, W. J., Carmack, E. C., McLaughlin, F. A., and Timmermans, M. L., Deterioration of perennial sea ice in the Beaufort Gyre from 2003 to 2012 and its impact on the oceanic freshwater cycle, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 1271-1305, doi:10.1002/2013JC008999, 2014.

contact

If you have any questions about satellite monitoring of the Arctic Ocean, sea ice forecasting, or the forecasting methods used here, please contact the Sea Ice Information Center（sea_ice@nipr.ac.jp)

The research for this forecast method was started in GRENE Project. The sea ice forecast was conducted in ArCS Project (FY2015-2019).

Arctic Sea Ice Forecast