Teleconnections and the Predictability
of Weather and Climate
This research program aims to elucidate environmental changes and the progression of warming in the Arctic region, and to provide findings that contribute to the development and deployment of prediction and adaptation measures on a societal level. To this end, we have set the following three research objectives.
- Understand Extreme Phenomena Related to Changes in the Arctic Region
- Elucidate Warming Amplification in the Arctic Region and the Warming Progression Process
- Contribute to Social Implementation of Extreme Phenomena Prediction, Disaster Prevention/ Mitigation, and Climate Change Adaptation Measures.
In order to realize the above objectives, we will conduct four interlinked sub-programs.
Sub-program 1 aims to elucidate the development mechanism of extreme phenomena associated with cold air masses that bring weather hazards in mid-latitude regions such as Japan and to improve the predictability of such phenomena. To this end, we will focus on cutoff lows—upper level low-pressure systems associated with pools of cold air—with the aim of constructing an index for predicting the development of extreme phenomena, a survey which has not been conducted on a global scale.
Sub-program 2 studies Pan-Arctic seasonal-to-decadal climate variability and its modulation under global warming. It aims to elucidate mechanisms underlying the past variability and to identify the cause factors which hold the key to the transition and progression over the next several decades, by focusing on remote influences between the Arctic and extra-Arctic regions, and the associated interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice.
Sub-program 3 aims to utilize meteorological findings obtained from the data covering recent decades and to deepen understanding of Arctic warming amplification mechanisms for long-term future prediction.
Sub-program 4 aims to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the role of land surface processes on Arctic environmental changes by evaluating the contribution of interaction systems that involves surface processes unique to the Arctic region to weather and climate change and their predictability.